Incident #36
Dota 2
The most recent tracked incident was a negative warning alert triggered by sustained conditions. Across the visible window, the game added 430 reviews, the current 1-hour directional delta sits at 117, and the incident peak reached 117 in 1 hour. The current incident is still live.
Alert explainability
This negative pressure alert is currently warning because the last-hour direction delta reached 117 reviews (252 over 6h), with 11.0x baseline intensity, evaluated under sustained conditions and fresh references.
Direction: Negative
Current tier: WARNING
Peak tier: WARNING
Model: V2
Trigger: sustained
Freshness: fresh
1h direction delta: 117
6h direction delta: 252
Baseline multiple: 11.0x
Score change (6h): 0.0%
Open since: Mar 24, 2026, 8:34 AM
Window end: Mar 23, 2026, 4:12 PM
Confidence score
HIGHBefore / after
Window from Mar 23, 2026, 9:18 PM to Mar 24, 2026, 11:02 AM.
Score before
81.0%
Score now
81.0%
Change
0.0%
Reviews added
430
Peak velocity
148/h
Counterfactual baseline
Observed velocity is running at least 2x expected baseline, indicating a strong anomaly.
Velocity 1h
Observed 86.5
Expected 33.5
Delta +53.0 (2.58x)
Score sensitivity
Observed 81.0%
Expected 81.0%
Delta 0.0 pt
Negative share
Observed 18.9%
Expected 18.9%
Delta +0.0 pp
Composite impact score
low (21)Tier severity
+14
Review volume delta
+4
Peak velocity
+3
Score movement
+0
Likely cause ranking
Probabilities are heuristic and derived from approved tag assignments, classifier confidence, and editorial overrides.
100%
Sustained negative flow indicates prolonged audience dissatisfaction.
Incident FAQ
Auto-generated summary designed for quick sharing, operations handoffs, and SEO-friendly incident context.
What happened?
Dota 2 entered a negative warning incident with 430 additional reviews in the tracked window.
How severe was it?
Incident remained in warning severity without crossing critical threshold. Composite impact score is 21/100 (LOW).
What are the most likely causes?
Patch Backlash 100%
Is it resolving?
Still active. Recovery is in progress and final stabilization timing is not confirmed.
How far did sentiment move from normal?
Score moved by 0.0 points, from 81.0% to 81.0%. Peak velocity reached 148 reviews/hour.
Does it resemble a broader cluster?
No related incidents were detected across connected titles in the current comparison window.
External trigger timeline
Correlates model milestones with seasonal overlap and cause evidence to explain likely trigger context.
Mar 19, 2026, 12:00 AM
Seasonal overlap: Steam Spring Sale 2026
Official Steam seasonal sale.
Mar 23, 2026, 3:12 PM
Peak pressure window
Peak tier reached WARNING.
Mar 23, 2026, 4:12 PM
Baseline divergence
1h direction velocity ran at 10.99x slot baseline.
Mar 24, 2026, 8:34 AM
Incident opened
Model opened a negative warning incident via sustained trigger logic.
Mar 24, 2026, 8:34 AM
Likely cause: Patch Backlash
Sustained negative flow indicates prolonged audience dissatisfaction. (alerts.trigger_type)
Anomaly explanation tree
Structured reason tree showing what opened the alert, what confirmed it, which factors reduced confidence, and how likely causes were assigned.
1) Opened by
Burst velocity anomaly
Baseline multiple 10.99x exceeded opening threshold.
Directional pressure (1h)
Direction delta 117 and share 1 informed open decision.
2) Confirmed by
Tier progression
Current tier: warning, peak: warning, trigger: sustained.
Score trend confirmation
6h score change at 0%.
3) Confidence dampeners
Freshness gate
Freshness state is fresh.
Direction coherence
Negative coherence maintained; no dampener from direction flip.
4) Tag assignment outcomes
Patch Backlash
64% confidence from 2 evidence items and 1 rules.
Evidence provenance
Audit view of the concrete signals, rule identifiers, and evidence sources that contributed to this incident interpretation.
Core signals
Direction delta 1h
117
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.direction_delta_1h
Short-window directional review acceleration used in live alert scoring.
Direction share 1h
1
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.direction_share_1h
Directional concentration used to distinguish coordinated or concentrated pressure.
Baseline ratio 1h
10.99
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.slot_baseline_ratio_1h
Observed velocity relative to expected slot baseline for this game/time bucket.
Score change 6h
0
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.score_change_percent_6h
Medium-window score movement used for sustained confirmation.
Applied rules
Cause evidence trail
Patch Backlash
SUSTAINED
alerts.trigger_type
Sustained negative flow indicates prolonged audience dissatisfaction.
Patch Backlash
false
seasonal_events
No PATCH event overlap detected.
Why this moved
TRIGGER
Prolonged negative sentiment — 252 biased reviews over 6 hours — 11.0x the expected rate — opened a warning alert.
SEVERITY
This incident is currently warning severity and still active.
CONTEXT
The sustained pattern suggests broad organic audience discontent: the signal built steadily over hours rather than spiking in a single burst.
Recovery tracking
Forecast ETA to normalize sentiment: 39 h (HIGH confidence)
Elevated live velocity versus baseline suggests recovery may take longer than typical.
Incident is still active. Recovery metrics will appear after resolution.
Time to peak
-1042 m
Time to resolve
Still active
Score at start
81.0%
Score at worst
81.0%
Score drop
0.0 pt
Sentiment stabilised
No
Incident velocity window
Alert timeline
Escalation history across active and resolved incidents for this game.
Started Mar 24, 2026, 8:34 AM
Peaked at warning severity
Mar 23, 2026, 4:12 PM
Incident opened at warning severity
Mar 24, 2026, 8:34 AM
Trigger: sustained
Portfolio blast radius
Isolated
No meaningful spread to other related titles right now.
Related active
0
Resolved (14d)
0
Impacted titles
0
Global active
1
No related active or recently resolved incidents were found.