Incident #39
Rust
The most recent tracked incident was a positive warning alert triggered by sustained conditions. Across the visible window, the game added 596 reviews, the current 1-hour directional delta sits at 135, and the incident peak reached 135 in 1 hour. 1 earlier incident have already resolved.
Alert explainability
This positive momentum alert is currently warning because the last-hour direction delta reached 135 reviews (401 over 6h), with 10.4x baseline intensity, evaluated under sustained conditions and stale references.
Direction: Positive
Current tier: WARNING
Peak tier: WARNING
Model: V2
Trigger: sustained
Freshness: stale
1h direction delta: 135
6h direction delta: 401
Baseline multiple: 10.4x
Score change (6h): 0.0%
Open since: Apr 2, 2026, 7:55 PM
Resolved at: Apr 2, 2026, 8:45 PM
Window end: Apr 2, 2026, 8:24 PM
Confidence score
HIGHBefore / after
Window from Apr 2, 2026, 8:52 AM to Apr 2, 2026, 9:44 PM.
Score before
87.0%
Score now
87.0%
Change
0.0%
Reviews added
596
Peak velocity
118/h
Counterfactual baseline
Observed velocity is running at least 2x expected baseline, indicating a strong anomaly.
Velocity 1h
Observed 93.7
Expected 14.0
Delta +79.7 (6.69x)
Score sensitivity
Observed 87.0%
Expected 87.0%
Delta 0.0 pt
Negative share
Observed 13.0%
Expected 13.0%
Delta +0.0 pp
Composite impact score
low (22)Tier severity
+14
Review volume delta
+5
Peak velocity
+3
Score movement
+0
Resolution duration
+0
Likely cause ranking
Probabilities are heuristic and derived from approved tag assignments, classifier confidence, and editorial overrides.
100%
Sustained positive flow indicates sentiment recovery.
Incident FAQ
Auto-generated summary designed for quick sharing, operations handoffs, and SEO-friendly incident context.
What happened?
Rust entered a positive warning incident with 596 additional reviews in the tracked window.
How severe was it?
Incident remained in warning severity without crossing critical threshold. Composite impact score is 22/100 (LOW).
What are the most likely causes?
Positive Turnaround 100%
Is it resolving?
Resolved after 50 m with still elevated current sentiment state.
How far did sentiment move from normal?
Score moved by 0.0 points, from 87.0% to 87.0%. Peak velocity reached 118 reviews/hour.
Does it resemble a broader cluster?
No related incidents were detected across connected titles in the current comparison window.
External trigger timeline
Correlates model milestones with seasonal overlap and cause evidence to explain likely trigger context.
Mar 30, 2026, 12:00 AM
Seasonal overlap: Steam House & Home Fest 2026
Official Steam themed fest.
Apr 2, 2026, 6:54 PM
Peak pressure window
Peak tier reached WARNING.
Apr 2, 2026, 7:55 PM
Incident opened
Model opened a positive warning incident via sustained trigger logic.
Apr 2, 2026, 7:55 PM
Likely cause: Positive Turnaround
Sustained positive flow indicates sentiment recovery. (alerts.trigger_type)
Apr 2, 2026, 8:44 PM
Baseline divergence
1h direction velocity ran at 10.37x slot baseline.
Apr 2, 2026, 8:45 PM
Incident resolved
Incident exited alert thresholds and moved to resolved state.
Anomaly explanation tree
Structured reason tree showing what opened the alert, what confirmed it, which factors reduced confidence, and how likely causes were assigned.
1) Opened by
Burst velocity anomaly
Baseline multiple 10.37x exceeded opening threshold.
Directional pressure (1h)
Direction delta 135 and share 0.83 informed open decision.
2) Confirmed by
Tier progression
Current tier: warning, peak: warning, trigger: sustained.
Score trend confirmation
6h score change at 0%.
3) Confidence dampeners
Freshness gate
Freshness state is stale.
Direction coherence
Positive pressure pattern lowers negative-risk interpretation.
4) Tag assignment outcomes
Positive Turnaround
70% confidence from 1 evidence items and 1 rules.
Evidence provenance
Audit view of the concrete signals, rule identifiers, and evidence sources that contributed to this incident interpretation.
Core signals
Direction delta 1h
135
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.direction_delta_1h
Short-window directional review acceleration used in live alert scoring.
Direction share 1h
0.83
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.direction_share_1h
Directional concentration used to distinguish coordinated or concentrated pressure.
Baseline ratio 1h
10.37
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.slot_baseline_ratio_1h
Observed velocity relative to expected slot baseline for this game/time bucket.
Score change 6h
0
alerts.metadata.current_metrics.score_change_percent_6h
Medium-window score movement used for sustained confirmation.
Applied rules
Cause evidence trail
Positive Turnaround
SUSTAINED
alerts.trigger_type
Sustained positive flow indicates sentiment recovery.
Why this moved
TRIGGER
Prolonged positive sentiment — 401 biased reviews over 6 hours — 10.4x the expected rate — opened a warning alert.
SEVERITY
The incident peaked at warning tier within the first hour. It ran for 1h total.
RECOVERY
Score has not meaningfully changed since resolution — sentiment appears stable.
CONTEXT
Sustained positive momentum typically reflects genuine improvement in audience sentiment — gradual recovery following a patch, price correction, or community-driven revisit.
Recovery tracking
Forecast ETA to normalize sentiment: Now (HIGH confidence)
Post-incident behaviour is close to expected baseline levels.
Time to peak
-61 m
Time to resolve
50 m
Score at start
87.0%
Score at peak
87.0%
Uplift
0.0 pt
Recovered +24 h
n/a
Recovered +7 d
n/a
Recovered +30 d
n/a
Sentiment stabilised
No
Incident velocity window
Alert timeline
Escalation history across active and resolved incidents for this game.
Started Apr 2, 2026, 7:55 PM
Incident opened at warning severity
Apr 2, 2026, 7:55 PM
Trigger: sustained
Peaked at warning severity
Apr 2, 2026, 8:24 PM
Resolved from warning severity
Apr 2, 2026, 8:44 PM
Portfolio blast radius
Isolated
No meaningful spread to other related titles right now.
Related active
0
Resolved (14d)
0
Impacted titles
0
Global active
0
No related active or recently resolved incidents were found.